Why I’m Betting My Recruitment Company Against AI
Zack AllenMay 20, 20263:23
People ask if AI will kill recruiting. I'm putting all my resources on the opposite bet.
As the owner of a recruitment firm, I get asked a lot whether AI will make my business disappear. I think the concern is fair. I just don't see AI as a threat, for three reasons.
1. AI is dumb
Usually, when I hear someone talk about AI replacing hiring, it's someone who doesn't use AI regularly. I use it constantly and I teach my team to use it. It's dumb, and I don't think it's going to get much smarter.
The use cases will keep expanding. But the underlying models are already enormous. Think about rolling the base of a snowman. The first few pushes make it grow fast. Once it gets big, every roll adds less, it gets harder to push, and it picks up dirt along the way. I think these models are in that stage. They're trained on so much data already that they won't get much better without years of human iteration.
2. It augments people, it doesn't replace them
AI doesn't know what a good output looks like. You still need a person doing the prompting, adjusting the output and doing something useful with it. What it does is greatly accelerate what one person can do.
Last week I gave my team course material on Claude. It's been amazing to watch their wheels start spinning on automations and how they can use Claude to build them.
3. The market says otherwise
Regardless of what I think, our placements keep growing. A lot of business owners tried AI as a replacement for people, found out it wasn't what they expected, and came back to hiring. Everything AI produces is shaped by the person using it. Artificial intelligence doesn't exist without human intelligence.
What about the layoffs?
The example people bring up is the layoffs companies blame on AI. First, those reports come out every year. Companies lay people off every year and hire new ones. That's normal.
Second, if your job is being replaced by AI, you probably weren't great at your job. There's a market for good talent, and there always will be.
The bet
AI may change which roles we place. Five years from now my recruitment firm will probably be placing very different roles than it does today. But I don't see a world where AI replaces people.
As valuations of hiring platforms like Upwork go down, I don't agree with the sentiment behind that, and I'm betting against it with everything I have. There will always be a market for great talent.
Transcript
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As the owner of a recruitment firm, I get questions a lot about AI and if I see my business in recruitment not existing because of the prevalence of AI and the sophistication of AI. And I think there's validity to that concern, but I do not see it as a threat for a couple reasons. I think one would be AI is dumb. Like I feel like a lot of the times when I hear people talk about the threat of AI on hiring, it's someone who hasn't used AI regularly and as someone who uses it quite often and teaches my team how to use it quite often.
It's dumb and I don't think it's going to get much smarter. I think that the applications and the use cases for it will expand, but I think that the underlying models are just so big. It's like uh if you've ever when it's snowing and you you're making a snowman and you roll the the the base of the snowman down and it it gets pretty big, but the more you roll it, it can only get so much like like that that first push, it increases in size exponentially.
But then once you get to this mass and you keep rolling it, it becomes harder to roll. Just kind of picks up a lot of dirt, too. And the size of it is marginally increasing as you roll it on more snow. And I think the same thing applies to these AI models. They're just trained on this massive amount of data that they're not going to get much better than they are without like years and years and years of human iteration because it the outputs are terrible.
Anyways, that's point number one is that I don't think the models are that good. Point number two as to why I don't see it as a concern is I think it is an augmentation of the human mind. I don't see it as a replacement. It doesn't know what good outputs actually look like. you still need that human in place to do the prompting and to adjust the output and to do something with the output.
Instead, I think it greatly accelerates the ability of an individual. And number three point why I don't think is because the market I regardless of what I think and how I feel, we continue growing in the amount of placements that we do. And it's because a lot of business owners have realized, tried for themselves and found out, oh wait, it's not actually the marketing replacement that we thought it was. It's all influenced by the human because artificial intelligence doesn't exist without natural intelligence, without human intelligence.
Last week, I gave my team the Claude course material to go through and it's been amazing to see the sort of how their wheels get spinning on automations and how they can use Claude to get there. I think that and a lot the example people will bring up often is like oh the layoffs the companies are doing they're laying off because of AI. First of all that those reports get put out every year.
The companies lay off every single year. They're like okay these people suck. Let's hire new ones. Like that's typical. But two I think that if your job is being replaced by AI you suck at your job in the first place. There is market for good talent. There will always continue to be a market for good talent. AI may shift the landscape as to what roles we're placing. Five years from now, the recruitment firm will be placing drastically different roles than we are now because of AI, but there's no world where I see that being a replacement for people.
And I'm investing all my resources into this bet. I think that as a lot of valuations of recruitment companies of work like Upwork is going down, I think that I don't agree with the sentiment and I want to bet against that. There will always be a market for great talent.
